The Aussie factor

AUD/USD: Positive Aussie Data, Range-Bound Price

As at 17 November 2025, AUD/USD is grinding around the mid-0.65s after a choppy but net-positive month.

Over the last four weeks, AUD/USD has traded roughly between 0.6440 and 0.6620, with a push up toward 0.66 in late October followed by a pullback and now a slow crawl sideways around 0.65–0.6550. Net-net, we’re only up about 0.3–0.6% from mid-October, but that small change hides some important shifts under the surface. (investing.com)

Zooming out, AUD is still up around 5–6% vs the USD in 2025 and has logged gains in most months this year. (Exchange Rates)

Data pulse: more positive than negative

The question for us is simple: has AUD been hit by bearish surprises, mixed data, or a run of positives?

Over the last month the balance has clearly tilted positive on the Australian side:

• Inflation: The monthly CPI indicator ticked up to 3.5% YoY in September from 3.0%, a clear upside surprise that keeps the “inflation still sticky” narrative alive. (Trading Economics)
• RBA stance: In the November Statement on Monetary Policy, the RBA leaned into the idea that inflation pressures are proving more persistent and flagged that a new full monthly CPI will become the primary gauge from 26 November – not the tone of a bank itching to cut aggressively. (Reserve Bank of Australia)
• Labour market: After an earlier wobble (unemployment at 4.5% in September), the October jobs report was strong, with ~42k jobs added and unemployment back down to 4.3%, effectively snuffing out near-term cut hopes. (VT Markets)
• Confidence: Westpac–MI consumer confidence jumped 12.8% in November to its highest since early 2022, a rare bright spot in sentiment. (News.com.au)

Put simply: the Aussie side has shifted from “soft-ish and cut-friendly” to “sticky inflation, resilient jobs, and an RBA that can afford to sit tight.”

On the USD side, we’re heading into a flood of delayed US data now that the long government shutdown has ended. That’s injected some two-way volatility into the dollar, but hasn’t created a clean bullish USD trend. (Reuters)

Verdict on the data tape:

Over the last month, AUD has not been hit by a string of bearish surprises. If anything, we’ve seen mildly AUD-positive surprises (inflation, jobs, confidence), with the price action more constrained by global risk mood and USD noise than by domestic weakness.

What the pros are saying

ING’s latest FX outlook has AUD as one of their preferred G10 longs into 2026, arguing that resilient Australian growth, a supportive China backdrop and only limited further RBA easing should keep AUD/USD gravitating toward the 0.68–0.69 area over time. (ING Think)

UBS recently nudged its AUD/USD forecast higher as well, targeting 0.68 by end-2025, noting the combination of a less dovish RBA and a USD that looks increasingly late-cycle. (Exchange Rates UK)

At the same time, technical pieces from houses like Capital.com highlight that while 2025 has seen an uptrend, the longer-term weekly downtrend is not decisively broken, and momentum has been stalling in the 0.65–0.66 region. (Capital.com)

So the institutional flavour is: fundamentals quietly supportive, structure still cautious.

Key upcoming data (next 1–2 weeks)

For our 1–10 day swing horizon, the following are the landmines and catalysts:

Australia

• RBA Minutes (18 Nov) – the tone around inflation risk and labour market slack will matter for how far the market pushes out rate-cut pricing. (Trading Economics)
• Q3 Wage Price Index & Westpac-MI Leading Index (this week) – upside in wages would reinforce the “RBA on hold for longer” story. (Westpaciq)
• 26 Nov – first full Monthly CPI (October) – big one. This becomes the new primary inflation metric and could re-price the entire Aussie curve if it comes in hot or soft. (Australian Bureau of Statistics)

United States

Post-shutdown we’ll start getting the backlog of US data:

• September non-farm payrolls and labour data (this week) – first clean look at US employment since the shutdown.
• Then a cluster of GDP, PCE inflation, durable goods, and housing data into late November. (Reuters)

This US data run will heavily influence the Fed-cut vs no-cut narrative for December – and by extension, the USD side of AUD/USD.

Trading lens: 1–10 day momentum view

From a short-term swing perspective (1–10 days):

• Price action: AUD/USD has had four weeks of net gains, then stalled in the mid-0.65s. We’re mid-range between support around 0.64–0.645 and resistance up near 0.662–0.667. (investing.com)
• Momentum: The impulsive leg up from the 0.64s has already cooled; several institutional notes now talk about range-trading and loss of upside momentum. (Capital.com)

My label for the next 1–10 days:

“Wait and see, mildly bullish bias.”

• I wouldn’t call this a screaming long: we’re mid-range, with big data just ahead.
• But given the recent upside surprises in Aussie data and a Fed that is no longer decisively hawkish, the path of least resistance remains slightly higher as long as 0.64–0.645 holds.
• For day-to-10-day momentum swings, it makes more sense to buy dips toward the lower half of the range than to chase breakouts into 0.66+ ahead of the 26 Nov CPI.

One-month view: constructive but stay nimble

Looking out to roughly a month:

• Fundamentals: RBA is on hold with a hawkish tilt, inflation is sticky, jobs are resilient and AUD is still relatively cheap vs where ING and UBS place fair-value over 2026. (ING Think)
• Technical structure: Weekly downtrend not fully broken, but 2025 has been a year of grinding recovery rather than collapse. Pullbacks so far are corrections within that recovery. (Capital.com)

So for the “up to one month” horizon:

I’d characterise the view as “cautiously bullish, trade it like a range, not a breakout trend.”

• Upside into the high-0.66s is possible if Aussie wages + monthly CPI come in firm and the US data doesn’t resurrect a strong-USD narrative.
• But any disappointment in those releases can quickly send us back toward 0.64s, given how crowded the “AUD recovery” trade has quietly become.

TL;DR for the blog

• Data tone: Last month has been AUD-positive overall, not a string of bearish surprises.
• Short term (1–10 days): Wait and see, with a slight bullish bias – buy dips, be cautious chasing strength into major data.
• One month: Constructively bullish but nimble – fundamentals support a gradual grind higher, but we’re still trading inside a broader range, not a runaway trend.